Wait and see pie.

As we fast approach the 2008 Beijing Olympics the whole subject of China and its place on the world stage come into sharp focus. I can't help feeling that the whole "China Story" is a little oversold.

There is no doubt that the Chinese Government has successfully exploited its massive population of under-paid workers to drive a nail into the coffin of Western manufacturers, but how long can this last? The seeds of the end of this cost advantage are already being sown. We hear almost daily of the new Chinese middle class. Last time I looked the middle class don't work for 50p a day.

And then there is the fact that China (careful you mustn't say this out loud) is a Communist Military Dictatorship. I thought we didn't like CMD's?

And then there is the thorny issue of Tibet. There have been well organised protests around the globe for the past fifteen years calling for an end to Chinese occupation of the mountain nation. I wonder if all those activists have spotted that the Olympics are going to be held in Beijing this summer....hmmm....maybe they'll not bother to organise some massive disruption in front of the world's media. No, they'll pass on this one. Not.

And then there is Rice. Hunger is one of the sure ways to guarantee a restless populace. The Chinese consume a lot of Rice. In fact with Rice shortages around the globe occurring, we can assume that the Chinese are going to be in the market paying whatever is necessary to keep their population fed. The price of Rice escalating further leading to a double whammy. Less Rice per person and more expensive to boot.

Over the years our manufacturing base has been eroded by cheaper goods from the East. We have tried to compensate by finding niches in the demand chain. Higher spec, quicker delivery, better payment options, whatever the market requires. It has made us a little cleverer, a little more fleet of foot. Maybe a little more able to respond to our customer's needs.

Of course, we are going to have our problems, possible recession, house price falls etc. but don't think the Chinese are immune from their own problems. Inflation, commodity price increases, wage increases, social unrest and more.

It is not clear how this is all going to play out this summer, but we are certainly living in interesting times.